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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 24th Jan 2024 - Update: JD Wetherspoon, Revolution Bars Group and Flat Iron results
JD Wetherspoon lfl sales up 11% in last quarter and 10% in last half-year, 5.8% growth in January’: JD Wetherspoon has reported like-for-like sales grew 11% in last quarter and 10% in last half-year, and were up 5.8% in January. In the 25 weeks to 21 January 2024, like-for-like sales were 10.1% higher than the same period a year ago. Bar sales increased by 11.8%, food by 7.9% and slot/fruit machines by 10.4%, while hotel room sales increased by 3.1%. Like for like sales in the last 12 weeks were 11.1% higher than the same period a year ago, and total sales have grown by 8.4% in the year to date. The business said it has outperformed the Coffer CGA Business Tracker for 16 consecutive months. In December, the latest month for which information is available, the tracker reported industry like-for-like sales of +8.8%, compared to +15.2% for Wetherspoon. Like-for-like sales in the last three weeks of the period were up 5.8%. Interest costs for FY24, excluding IFRS 16 notional interest, are expected to be approximately the same as they were in FY23 (£51m). Debt levels at the end of FY24 are expected to be broadly in line with the level reported at the end of FY23 (£642m). The company has opened two pubs in the year to date, at London’s Heathrow airport and at London Euston railway station. Five pubs have been sold and eight leasehold pubs have either been surrendered to the landlord or sublet. The disposals and surrenders resulted in a cash inflow of £3.8m. The company currently has a trading estate of 814 pubs. Wetherspoon chairman Tim Martin said: “Wetherspoon, like the hospitality industry, has seen a consistent but slow recovery, following the pandemic. Although inflation is, in general, reducing, labour and energy costs are far higher than pre-pandemic. A main issue for the pub trade is that labour costs are around 30% of sales, compared to around 10% for supermarkets. The price of a pint in a supermarket is about £1, so a 10% increase in labour costs (which are around 10 pence per pint) necessitates a one pence increase in the selling price to cover costs. However, for pubs, the average selling price of a pint is around £4.50. The labour per pint is therefore around £1.35 (30% of £4.50), necessitating a 13.5 pence increase in the selling price to cover extra costs. The inevitable consequence is that increased labour costs raise the differential in prices between the hospitality industry and supermarkets. At the same time, pubs pay far higher VAT and business rates than supermarkets, further exacerbating the price disparity. In particular, pubs and restaurants pay 20% VAT in respect of food sales, whereas supermarkets pay almost nothing, a tax differential which is surely unfair. Notwithstanding these issues, Wetherspoon currently expects an outcome for the financial year in line with market expectations.”

Propel’s next Multi-Site Database to be released on Friday with new seven category segmentation: The next Propel Multi-Site Database will be released on Friday (26 January) at midday to Premium members – and in a ground-breaking move sees companies now searchable in seven main segments. The database, produced in association with Virgate, provides details of more than 3,000 multi-site operators. But following feedback from subscribers, companies will now be searchable in seven main segments – allowing users to search quickly in key categories and allowing them to drill down into the details and updates for these specific areas. The biggest segment is casual dining, which consists of 900 companies and they make up 28% of the database. There are 758 companies in the pubs and bars segment (25% of the database total), 497 in café bakery (16% of total), 408 quick service restaurant companies (14%), 247 hotel business (8%), 187 experiential leisure operators (7%) and 50 fine dining companies (2%). The database is updated each month – this edition includes 20 new companies and brings the total to 3,047. Premium members also receive access to five other databases: the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the New Openings Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who’s Who of UK Food & Beverage. Propel is evolving its Premium subscription offer by launching Premium Club on Thursday, 1 February. All circa 4,000 existing subscribers automatically become members. The launch of Premium Club comes with even more benefits. All subscribers will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to four Propel paid-for events – The Excellence in Pub Retailing Conference (14 May), Social Media for Profit (18 July), the Talent and Training Conference (1 October) and Restaurant Marketer and Innovator (two days in January 2025). Operators will also be able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club members receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club members will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club members also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Propel Premium subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.

Revolution Bars Group ‘reconsiders assumption of lfl growth in second half’ following soft January, puts all refurbs on hold until trading improves: Revolution Bars Group, the operator of the Revolution, Revolución de Cuba and Peach Pubs brands, said it has “reconsidered its assumption of like-for-like growth” in the second half of its financial year following a soft January and has put all refurbishments on hold “until trading improves”. In its first half update, the business said that despite strong festive trading – Propel reported earlier this month that Christmas like-for-likes were up 9% – and the improving like-for-like trend throughout the first half, “January trade has started softly as guests recover from the expense of Christmas”. It said: “With inflation still high, we cannot assume that the 14.8% increase in the National Minimum Wage for 18- to 20-year-olds, plus the 9.8% increase for those over 21 from April (total blended 10.8%), flows through to increased discretionary spend for our Revolution guests in particular. It is however a material increase in cost in each of our businesses. This, together with the recently announced continuation of Aslef train strikes, means that the board has had to reconsider previous assumptions of like-for-like growth in the second half of the financial year. While the business continues to manage costs tightly, the significantly above inflation increases in both business rates and payroll costs set by the government are a significant additional burden and barrier to growth. As a result, the board now expects IAS 17 Ebitda to be circa £3-3.5m. Net debt at 23 January 2024 is £20.3m, well within our facility with NatWest. However, we will significantly reduce our capex expenditure to reflect this lower Ebitda, with all refurbishments deferred until we see trading improve.” Chief executive Rob Pitcher said: “The 2023 festive trading period is our best for four years. I have been delighted with the strong growth in Peach, Revolución de Cuba and Founders over the festive period. It was pleasing to see our Revolution guests experience their first uninterrupted Christmas since 2019, driving growth for the brand. Revolution’s younger guests are however still feeling the disproportionate effect of the cost-of-living crisis. Looking forward, both business rates and national living wage will increase materially in April 2024 and therefore we have had to take the view that, with inflation remaining high, the recovery for the Revolution business, our largest brand, will take longer than we had previously forecast. I’d like to thank our teams for all their hard work in making the Christmas period such a success and look forward to the point when the cost of living abates sufficiently for our Revolution guests’ disposable income in particular to improve.” The group also provided a further break-down of its Christmas trading and said group like-for-like sales for the first half, including New Year’s Eve, “continued to demonstrate an improving trend” at -2.8% for the half. Its Peach brand delivered its best ever Christmas trading period with three consecutive record weeks during December, achieving weekly sales of over £1m for the first time. It said: “Like-for-likes versus FY23 continued to be strong over the festive period driven by good Christmas party bookings. Integration of the Peach acquisition continues to go well with synergies of £1.5m on track to be fully delivered by FY25.” For the Revolución de Cuba brand, corporate guests drove pre-booked party revenue significantly by 26% versus 2022. “As a result, significant double digit like-for-like growth was achieved during the four weeks to 31 December, with the brand outperforming the bars market again, which it has done for the each of the past 13 months,” the business said. “Christmas delivered a welcome boost for the Revolution brand and we saw our corporate guests returning to enjoy themselves and help to deliver positive like-for-like growth, with solid pre-booked sales growth for the festive season of 11%. Nonetheless, it remains clear that the younger guest to which this brand appeals continues to experience, disproportionately, the cost-of-living crisis pressurising their discretionary income, causing the Revolution brand to underperform. Founders and Co, our artisanal market hall and bar in Swansea, continues to go from strength to strength, delivering double digit like-for-like growth every month in FY24 to date as it continues to build on its status as a community hub for likeminded guests. This concept is now well positioned for growth and is an exciting prospect for the group.”

Flat Iron repeatedly breaks weekly sales record in ‘strong’ festive period with lfl growth of almost 30%: Flat Iron, the Piper-backed affordable steak concept, repeatedly broke its weekly sales record in a “strong” festive period which saw like-for-like growth of almost 30%. For the five-weeks to 7 January 2024, like-for-like sales were up 29.8% on the same period last year, with average weekly sales per restaurant exceeding £70,000. Nine out of the group’s 14 restaurants broke their weekly records during this period. In December, the brand achieved a landmark £1m-plus in weekly sales, which has since been repeated in back-to-back weeks. Chief executive Tom Byng said: “We’re delighted to have enjoyed such a strong seasonal period – in no small part due to the quality of our offering, our superb restaurant teams and, of course, our extremely loyal guests. We look forward to welcoming many more during the year at our restaurants in London and beyond.” Flat Iron, which was founded by Charlie Carroll in 2012 as a pop up above a London pub, has a confirmed pipeline for 2024 including sites in Hammersmith, Manchester and Victoria, as previously reported by Propel. It comes as the company earlier this month reported a record year of sales for the year ended 27 August 2023, with full year sales of £35.9m up £12.4m (52.9%) on the previous year, while adjusted Ebitda was £3.8m (2022: £3.5m). At the time, Byng said the business is targeting four to five new restaurants a year and believes there is room for at least 30 more sites in London.

Sober Generation Z leave Treasury facing ‘sin tax’ blackhole: Clean-living youngsters threaten to blow a multibillion-pound hole in public finances as alcohol and tobacco tax income declines, the head of a spending watchdog has warned. Richard Hughes, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has questioned whether assumptions about future tax income from what are often dubbed “sin taxes” are realistic, reports The Telegraph. He told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee: “There are some bits of the tax system which are themselves not sustainable. Nowadays, you have to ask whether young people are drinking and smoking enough for us to be collecting alcohol and tobacco duties at the current rate that we are.” Around a third of 18 to 24-year-olds do not drink alcohol, according to surveys from YouGov, up from one in five in 2019. Meanwhile, figures from health insurance firm Vitality reveal that the average office worker feels like they can’t work properly due to their mental health for 50 work days per year, reports The Daily Mail. While only six of these 50 days were taken off completely as sick leave, staff that did come to work struggled to achieve anything in the office, the research found. Vitality surveyed 4,000 employees and their employers and found that those under 30 are more likely to report bad productivity at work compared to older generations. Generation Z workers reported 60 lost productive days due to health concerns versus just 36 days for those aged 50 and over. The research also found that younger employees were twice as likely to suffer from depression and showed higher levels of burnout and tiredness than their older co-workers. Vitality chief executive Neville Koopowitz said: “Businesses must recognise the importance and impact of facilitating a healthy workplace, one that acknowledges employees’ mental and physical health needs. If health at work is properly managed, business and the wider economy stand to gain significantly.”

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